Thursday, February 2, 2012

NABE survey: More see U.S. economy growing

Published: Jan. 23, 2012 at 12:01 AM

WASHINGTON, Jan. 23 (UPI) -- An increasing number of business economists and policymakers say U.S. economic growth will top 2 percent this year, a national survey released Monday indicated.

But most saw the job situation staying about the same, the National Association for Business Economics survey showed.

Sixty percent of respondents said they expected real gross domestic product to top 2 percent growth from last year's fourth quarter to this year's -- 44 percentage points more than in October, when 16 percent said real GDP growth would beat 2 percent growth for the same period, NABE said.

In the current survey, 28 percent suggested real GDP would grow 1.1 percent to 2 percent, compared with 70 percent who held this view in the previous survey.

In both the current and previous survey, very few respondents said they expected real GDP growth above 3 percent, NABE said.

GDP is the total value of U.S. goods and services, whether they are produced by a U.S. company or a foreign company operating in the United States. It is the single most comprehensive indicator of an economy's health.

The U.S. Commerce Department said last month real GDP from the second quarter to the third quarter increased at an annual rate of 1.8 percent. Between the first and second quarters, real GDP increased 1.3 percent, the department said.

Fourth-quarter figures are to be released in March.

Regarding employment, 27 percent said they expected employment to rise, compared with October's 29 percent, while 64 percent said they saw employment staying the same, a 5-point jump from October's 59 percent.

Eight percent said they expected employment to drop, compared with October's 12 percent.

Survey respondents are NABE members who work for private-sector companies and industry trade associations. They are involved in goods-producing industries, transportation, utilities, information, communications, finance, insurance, real estate and services.

Source: http://www.upi.com/Business_News/2012/01/23/NABE-survey-More-see-US-economy-growing/UPI-88631327294860/

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Netflix reshuffles marketing

Published: Jan. 21, 2012 at 11:18 AM

LOS ANGELES, Jan. 21 (UPI) -- U.S. movie rental company Netflix said its chief marketing officer Leslie Kilgore would be replaced by its vice president of marketing Jessie Becker.

Becker has been with Netflix for 11 years, one short of Kilgore's 12 years as the head of marketing, The Hollywood Reporter said Saturday.

Becker's new post is an interim assignment. Kilgore, meanwhile, will move over to a non-executive position on the company's board of directors, the company said.

"Leslie has been instrumental in our long-term success and our recent return to solid growth. We are delighted she is joining our board of�directors and will continue to be a key part of Netflix," said co-founder and Chief Executive Officer Reed Hastings.

The move, however, comes after a series of costly marketing errors, including an attempt to divide the company's down-streaming computer business from DVD rentals.

That move would have sharply increased subscriber costs. But the company backtracked on the decision after consumers complained, many of them dropping their subscriptions in the process.

Source: http://www.upi.com/Business_News/2012/01/21/Netflix-reshuffles-marketing/UPI-40711327162695/

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Protesters vow to camp near Wall St. indefinitely (AP)

NEW YORK ? In a small granite plaza a block from the New York Stock Exchange, a group of 20-somethings in flannel pajama pants and tie-dyed T-shirts are plotting the demise of Wall Street as we know it.

They have been there since Saturday, sleeping on cardboard boxes, eating pizza and take-out dinners that were paid for by donations to their cause. There are only about 200 of them left now, though they started out 1,500 strong.

Welcome to the headquarters of "Occupy Wall Street," a place where topless women stood Wednesday morning on the corner shouting "I can't afford a shirt!" while construction workers eagerly snapped photos on their phones. A small group of the protesters wound their way through the streets of lower Manhattan escorted by police officers, blaring bullhorns and chanting "Resist! Stand Up! There comes a time when the people rise up!"

What, exactly, they are protesting is somewhat unclear. When asked what they are fighting, they gave a variety of responses ranging from Wall Street to global warming. On its website, the group proclaims: "We, the people of the United States of America, considering the crisis at hand, now reassert our sovereign control of our land."

Sam Wood, an unemployed 21-year-old, said he was there because he doesn't think it's fair "the way that the rich get more breaks than the poor."

"What I really want to achieve is to educate people about what's going on with the economy right now," he said as he bumped into another protester waving an American flag. "A couple of the ways that we might be able to fix it, you know?"

A barricade was set up to protect the NYSE building as they marched past it. Some people in suits stopped in the street to gaze curiously at the scene in the plaza ? a strange jumble of people carrying signs, playing snare drums and openly smoking marijuana on benches.

Police watched the proceedings carefully after a scuffle Tuesday that led to seven arrests and one injured protester. Most of those arrested were given disorderly conduct summonses and released.

Four more protesters were arrested Wednesday for disorderly conduct and released.

Ryan Reed, 21, a senior at Rutgers University, was missing class to attend the protest, but his professors are letting him make up the work by writing papers about the experience.

"The enemy is the big business leaders of Wall Street, the big oil company leaders, the coal company leaders, the big military industrial leaders," he said. "I came out here because what I see ? and what I feel most people in this country see ? is an economy and a system that's collapsing."

Kaitlyn Leigh, a 21-year-old from Rochester, N.Y., said she is going to move out of her apartment and stay here indefinitely because she's been so inspired by what she's seen.

"It's about creating a community in this liberated space," she said. "It's about having the ability to have people's needs met, whether it be food, clothing, shelter."

Every afternoon, the group convenes at the center of the plaza for what they call a "General Assembly," a meeting during which they map out their tactics for the next day. Forbidden from using a microphone ? they don't have the proper permits ? the group got creative.

"What we do is a people's microphone," Reed said. "So the person who's speaking says a couple of words and then the whole crowd repeats it so everyone can hear. It's actually beautiful."

For Reed, at least, an ideal outcome for the situation would be a near-shutdown of Wall Street, with protesters descending upon Wall Street and preventing bankers from getting to their desks. But he realizes that may not happen anytime soon ? particularly not before he returns to class next week.

"So far we haven't had the numbers to clog the kind of traffic we need to clog," he admitted.

Though the crowd has thinned as the days pass, the group is vowing to stick it out as long as possible. Bill Csapo, an unofficial spokesman for the protesters, said they've gained access to a commercial kitchen and plan to start cooking meals for the group in the next day or two. On Saturday night, people donated $10,000 worth of pizzas.

Csapo, of Cleveland, Tenn., hasn't actually traveled to Manhattan for the event. He got involved by meeting some of the organizers on Internet forums, which is how the whole thing got started. But he said the occupiers ? a term he prefers instead of "protesters" ? aren't leaving anytime soon.

"I'm currently unemployed and loving what I'm doing," Leigh said. "I'm going to stay here until the end."

Source: http://us.rd.yahoo.com/dailynews/rss/stocks/*http%3A//news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110921/ap_on_re_us/us_wall_street_protest

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Debt crisis: live

10.41 The UK has sold �1.25bn of inflation-linked 2029 bonds at a negative yield of -0.188pc. Good demand.

10.39 French President Nicolas Sarkozy says real estate prices are too high... has he tried buying a house in London?

He adds that state subsidies boosted property speculation.

10.31 Jos� Manuel Barroso, President of the European Commission, has been speaking in Brussels on competition policy:

Quote If we want to regain confidence of investors and of market participants, this can only be achieved within a system based on solid rules that are fairly enforced. This is the basis of the Commission's approach to competition policy. Our Single Market is our greatest asset, the crown jewel of the European Union, our greatest asset in a competitive and globalised world, and it is our most promising engine for growth. Europe's future growth prospects depend on a rules-based Single Market that fosters openness and innovation.

"On one thing we have to be clear ? yes we need to consolidate undertakings, but in the medium to long term, only those who are able to successfully compete in Europe, will be fit to face competition globally. If an athlete aspires to compete in the Olympic Games, he must first be fit and be among the best in his own country. Competition helps undertakings to be fit enough to compete on a global scale.

10.26 German Chancellor Angela Merkel is in China for talks. Here she is looking at traditional houses in Beijing:

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao has said it is very important to resolve the eurozone debt crisis. His country is considering greater involvement in the EFSF and ESM bailout funds.

Euro jumps against the dollar to $1.31889 on Chinese leader's comments.

10.24 OECD Secretary-General Angel Gurr�a has said the ECB could contribute to cut Greek debt.

10.22 According to Reuters, an Italian minister has told unions that the government will push ahead with labour market reforms even without their agreement. Labour minister reportedly says the government intends to agree labour reforms within two weeks.

10.16 A map of the EU made from Lego is hung in the atrium of the European Council:

10.09 Eurozone producer prices rose 4.3pc year-on-year in December, slower than 5.4pc in November. Slowest since November 2010. Month-on-month producer prices fell 0.2pc, worse than the 0.1pc fall expected.

10.07 France has sold 10-year bonds at an average yield of 3.13pc (versus 3.29pc previously), eight-year bonds at 2.91pc (versus 3.64pc previously).

10.06 Time for an update on the markets:

FTSE 100 -0.2pc

CAC -0.1pc

DAX flat

IBEX +0.2pc

MIB -0.4pc

Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist at FXCM, said:

Quote European shares are sending mixed signals in early trade, with sentiment trends torn between headwinds from Europe and what is likely to be supportive commentary from the Fed?s Ben Bernanke later in the day. On the eurozone crisis front, the situation remains tense. An accord on private-sector involvement in the second Greek bailout ? without which the debt-strapped country may face default as soon as early March ? remains stubbornly elusive.

09.51 Spain has sold ?4.56bn of bonds, slightly more than planned. ?2.52bn of 2.861pc 2015 bonds, ?1.05bn of 3.455pc 2016 bonds and ?984m of 3.565pc 2017 bonds. Yields all fell from previous auction, demand higher.

Spain now issued close to 25pc of full-year target - not bad for the beginning of February.

09.41 Bloomberg is reporting that Anglo American chief executive Cynthia Carroll has undergone an operation on her hip after a horse-riding accident at the weekend.

Carroll, who is understood to be ?recovering well?, has been advised by her doctor not to travel internationally for about two months, Pranill Ramchander, a spokesman for the company, said by phone.

?Plans are in place to cover her overseas engagements,? he said, adding she is in full contact with her executives and is expected back in the office by the end of next week.

09.32 BREAKING NEWS...

UK Construction PMI fell to 51.4 in January versus 53.2 in December. Analysts expetced 52.5.

(For a larger version of this graph, click the right-hand-side of the main picture at the top of this blog)

Poor result for the construction sector, and was the weakest result for four months. But reading is still above 50 mark that seperates contraction from growth

09.06 Good news. S&P, the ratings agency, believes that the eurozone recession could end later this year.

Meanwhile, Norwegian Finance Minister Sigbjorn Johnsen has said there are "good signals" for a euro recovery.

09.02 A veteran retailer has urged the Government to reject Mary Portas's plans to save the high street, claiming many shopping streets are "in a death spiral".

Phil Wrigley, the chairman of Majestic Wine, who has held directorships at New Look, Debenhams and BHS, likened high streets to the shipbuilding industry and said many should be converted to housing.

Ms Portas made 28 recommendations to the Government, including setting up national market days and "town teams" to get retailers, landlords and councils to work more closely together and introduce more free parking.

Mr Wrigley said:

Quote Unlike Mary Portas, I don't think we can continue to try and muddle through, supporting the traditional high street model. There comes a point when the vacancy rate is so high that no new retailers will come in to a location because they don't want to be sited among empty shops. It is, in effect, a death spiral. There is some debate about where the threshold lies but it is probably between 20pc and 30pc.

08.48 Spanish Economy Minister Luis de Guindos is to announce an overhaul of the country's banks this afternoon.

08.28 Benedict Brogan's email focuses on the Miliband brothers:

David Miliband, Labour?s submarine, surfaces and launches a torpedo: the former foreign secretary has an essay in today?s New Statesman (where else?) which is being widely intepreted as an attack on his brother. We've put it on page one and Today is leading on the story.

And though there is some careful praise for Ed, it?s hard not to see it as unhelpful for the Labour leader. As we report in our splash , David M attacks Roy Hattersley and Lord Kinnock (both Ed allies) for adopting what David calls a?reassurance Labour? response to the Coalition government.

08.20 In his daily email today, Telegraph City Editor Richard Fletcher focuses on some of the UK's biggest companies:

Fourth-quarter profits at Royal Dutch Shell are up 14pc as the high oil price made up for dismal margins in its refining business. The oil giant is upbeat: claiming that new projects will drive a 50pc rise in its cashflow and a 25pc rise in oil and gas production in the coming years. Profits are also up at AstraZeneca , although the company has warned that it expects earnings to fall this year as patents on key drugs expire and governments squeeze prices. Alongside its results the UK?s second largest drugmaker has announced plans to cut a further 7,300 jobs. Meanwhile, Unilver chief executive Paul Polman has warned "of a difficult 2012".

08.14 The BBC's Robert Peston on the business events of the past 24 hours:

08.05 Spanish unemployment jumped in January, new figures show. Country saw 177,470 more people out of work last month, higher than an estimated 127,000 and the larget number in three years. Unemployment now stands at 4.6m, or 22.9pc.

08.02 European markets have opened. FTSE 100 is flat, DAX is up 0.4pc, CAC is up 0.8pc, IBEX up 0.7pc, MIB up 0.7pc.

Royal Dutch Shell falls 1.4pc after results missed forecasts, despite its 2011 profit jumping 54pc to nearly $31bn. Xstrata jumps 11.7pc on merger talks.

07.47 More on the rumours that Glencore is nearing an agreement to combine with Xstrata (see 07.15). Xstrata has confirmed it is has received an approach from Glencore regarding an all-share merger of equals and is in talks. Xstrata stressed that there can be no certainty any offer will be made.

07.44 BREAKING NEWS...

Royal Dutch Shell has revealed that its 2011 net profit jumped by 54pc to $30.92bn on the back of higher energy prices.

07.41 A spokesman for the Greek government has said that the bulk of talks with troika lenders is over and just a few sticking points remain.

07.39 Switzerland's exports rebounded 6.1pc in December, imports 7.6pc, trade surplus of CHF2.07bn. Watch exports rose 21pc that month.

07.33 And the winner is... not Kodak. The century-old photography trailblazer has filed a request to pull its name from the Los Angeles theater hosting the Oscars as part of bankruptcy proceedings launched last month.

The request, filed at a New York bankruptcy court, asks for the cancellation of a contract signed in 2001 with developer TrizecHahn Hollywood in which Kodak paid an annual sum to attach its name to the venue.

07.15 Glencore is nearing an agreement to combine with Xstrata in a deal that may value the combined entity at �52bn, Bloomberg said, citing two people with knowledge of the plan. The two commodities-focused companies may announce a deal as early as this week, the people told the news agency.

07.08 BREAKING NEWS...

Pharmaceutical company AstraZeneca is to cut 7,300 jobs as part of a restructuring.

The company, which employs 8,000 people in the UK, is looking to axe 2,200 is research and development and 1,350 in operations. It will end R&D activity on two sites focused on neuroscience in Sweden and Canada. Around 3,750 positions in selling, general and administrative expenses will also be affected.

07.05 Key economic data out today include UK PMI construction at 9.30am, eurozone PPI at 10am, and US jobless claims and continuing claims at 1.30pm. We'll have the latest here when they come out.

07.00 Deutsche Bank has announced results. Net income of ?4.3bn for 2011. Q4 revenues of ?6.9bn were down 7pc from a year earlier. Provision for credit losses was ?1.8bn for 2011 versus ?1.3bn in 2010. Chief executive Josef Ackermann sees 2102 as "economically very challenging".

Meanwhile, Sony has reported a net loss of $1.2bn in the October-December quarter. Company blames weak TV sales and strong yen.

06.55 Back to the UK and Adam Posen, Monetary Policy Committee Member, believes things would have been much worse for Britain if the Bank of England hadn't launched quantitative easing.

He adds that inflation will fall all year, just as the BoE forecast.

06.53 First pieces of news coming out China, where Merkel is holding talks with leaders. She says high debt levels are not just a European problem, they are a global problem. She adds that the German market is open to Chinese business but urges the country to imporve its intellectual property protections.

Merkel wants rules for shadow banking to come about within G20 framework in the next two years.

Meanwhile, S&P sees Chinese soft landing as most likely scenario.

06.50 Meanwhile, in the Telegraph, Jeremy Warner asks what the Government has done for British business:

The banker bashing of the political class is now so out of hand it threatens serious damage to the UK economy. The tone and rhetoric is not just anti-banker, it is anti-business and sends all the wrong messages for a country which is meant to be "open for business". The only jobs being created in reasonable numbers in Western economies these days are in healthcare, education and business services. The first two of these sectors are largely public sector, which the Government is cutting as fast as it can. For Britain, the third largely revolves around the City, which the Government undermines with its every word and action.

06.47 In The Independent today, several financial experts offer their views on the future of the euro, with worrying results:

Danny Blanchflower, Professor of Economics, Dartmouth College: ?The fundamental problem that has not been addressed is that there is no growth plan for Greece."

Nouriel Roubini, Professor of Economics, New York University: ?The eurozone is a slow-motion train wreck. Not only Greece, other countries as well are insolvent. There?s a 50pc probability that over the next three to five years the eurozone will break up."

George Soros, currency trader: "We remain in the acute phase of the crisis; the prospect of a meltdown of the global financial system has not been removed. The trouble is that the cuts in government expenditures that Germany wants to impose on other countries will push Europe into a deflationary debt trap."

Alistair Darling, Chancellor of the Exchequer 2007-2010: "I don?t think anyone can realistically say that the eurozone will survive with its present membership and the longer the inaction goes on the greater the chance that one or more countries will be forced out."

Jim O?Neil, Chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management: "The reality is that too many countries joined the euro in the first place and ultimately without dramatic change they can?t probably survive."

Ed Balls, Shadow Chancellor: "Far from being over, I fear the eurozone crisis is this year entering a more chronic, drawn out but equally dangerous phase."

Olli Rehn, Vice President of the European Commission responsible for the euro: "The euro is here to stay and will emerge stronger from the current crisis. The events of the last two years have created the conditions for us to strengthen its foundations decisively."

06.44 Ed Balls has told the Financial Times that a "gaping hole" in the bill to revamp City regulation could prevent important warnings from reaching the Chancellor.

The Shadow Chancellor has criticised some of the extensive powers that the bill would grant to the Governor of the Bank of England, saying that the new structure could stifle dissenting voices.

QuoteI don?t think [the current system] can be said to have caused the global crisis. Countries with very different structures got this wrong. We are at best very unconvinced that this [bill] is a comprehensive solution.

Elsewhere in the FT, Kenneth Rogoff, professor of economics at Harvard University, has written a column on a crisis in capitalism:

Quote The idea that Chinese capitalism provides a blueprint for the rest of the world economy is an absurd exaggeration.

06.41 German Chancellor Angela Merkel is in China today to reassure Chinese leaders that Europe is resolving its debt crisis. Merkel is to deliver a speech later at a government think tank and meet Chinese leaders. German officials say Merkel's goals include reassuring Chinese leaders about the stability of the 17-nation euro area. They said she will brief them on this week's meeting of European leaders, who agreed on a treaty to impose new spending controls.

Merkel is expected to press Beijing to buy less Iranian oil to help Western governments pressure Iran to give up a possible nuclear weapons program. China gets more than 10pc of its oil imports from Iran, and Beijing has rejected an embargo.

06.38 Mark Zuckerberg compared the launch of Facebook with the invention of the printing press as the company powered up a $5bn (�3.2bn) initial public offering last night, which is expected to rank as the biggest technology flotation in history.

The Class B shares of Mr Zuckerberg - who owns 28.4pc of the company - will each carry 10 votes, whereas the Class A shares being offered at IPO will have just one vote a piece. The filing said:

Quote[The structure] provides Mr Zuckerberg with the ability to control the outcome of matters requiring stockholder approval, even if he owns significantly less than a majority of the shares.

Key points from Facebook's IPO filing include the fact that the site chalked up $1bn of net income last year, almost doubling the $606m it made in 2010. Revenues shot up to $3.71bn last year from $1.97bn in 2010.

In a letter, Mr Zuckerberg said:

QuoteFacebook was not originally created to be a company. It was built to accomplish a social mission ? to make the world more open and connected. We think it?s important that everyone who invests in Facebook understands what this mission means to us, how we make decisions and why we do the things we do... Simply put: we don?t build services to make money; we make money to build better services.

06.30 The Mirror has led on the news that Ravi Sinha, 47, was fined nearly �3m by the City watchdog for fraud but escaped criminal prosecution after his company JC Flowers allegedly refused to help police nail him. City of London Police and JC Flowers yesterday blamed each other for the scandal ? both accusing the other of having no appetite for prosecution.

Meanwhile, The Times says Lloyds is preparing to hand investment banking chief Truett Tate a �4.8m payout as he leaves the bank as part of a management reshuffle

06.25 This morning's business pages are split between the state of the UK economy and Facebook filing for its IPO:

06.15 Good morning and welcome back to our debt crisis live blog.

Debt crisis live: archive

Source: http://telegraph.feedsportal.com/c/32726/f/568312/s/1c568ba7/l/0L0Stelegraph0O0Cfinance0Cdebt0Ecrisis0Elive0C90A557820CDebt0Ecrisis0Elive0Bhtml/story01.htm

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NABE survey: More see U.S. economy growing

Published: Jan. 23, 2012 at 12:01 AM

WASHINGTON, Jan. 23 (UPI) -- An increasing number of business economists and policymakers say U.S. economic growth will top 2 percent this year, a national survey released Monday indicated.

But most saw the job situation staying about the same, the National Association for Business Economics survey showed.

Sixty percent of respondents said they expected real gross domestic product to top 2 percent growth from last year's fourth quarter to this year's -- 44 percentage points more than in October, when 16 percent said real GDP growth would beat 2 percent growth for the same period, NABE said.

In the current survey, 28 percent suggested real GDP would grow 1.1 percent to 2 percent, compared with 70 percent who held this view in the previous survey.

In both the current and previous survey, very few respondents said they expected real GDP growth above 3 percent, NABE said.

GDP is the total value of U.S. goods and services, whether they are produced by a U.S. company or a foreign company operating in the United States. It is the single most comprehensive indicator of an economy's health.

The U.S. Commerce Department said last month real GDP from the second quarter to the third quarter increased at an annual rate of 1.8 percent. Between the first and second quarters, real GDP increased 1.3 percent, the department said.

Fourth-quarter figures are to be released in March.

Regarding employment, 27 percent said they expected employment to rise, compared with October's 29 percent, while 64 percent said they saw employment staying the same, a 5-point jump from October's 59 percent.

Eight percent said they expected employment to drop, compared with October's 12 percent.

Survey respondents are NABE members who work for private-sector companies and industry trade associations. They are involved in goods-producing industries, transportation, utilities, information, communications, finance, insurance, real estate and services.

Source: http://www.upi.com/Business_News/2012/01/23/NABE-survey-More-see-US-economy-growing/UPI-88631327294860/

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Blue chips drop 4 percent on recession fears (Reuters)

NEW YORK (Reuters) ? Stocks fell further on Thursday, with the Dow industrials briefly down 4 percent, as a bleak outlook from the Federal Reserve and weak data from China heightened fears of a global recession.

The Dow Jones industrial average dropped 413.38 points, or 3.72 percent, to 10,711.46. The S&P 500 dropped 38.84 points, or 3.33 percent, to 1,127.92. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 81.79 points, or 3.22 percent, to 2,456.40.

(Editing by James Dalgleish)

Source: http://us.rd.yahoo.com/dailynews/rss/stocks/*http%3A//news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20110922/bs_nm/us_markets_stocks

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IMF director: World economy enters dangerous phase (AP)

WASHINGTON ? The head of the International Monetary Fund says the global economy has entered a dangerous phase and that heavy debt burdens could "suffocate" a recovery.

Nations must work together to meet the growing risks, IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde said Thursday. Banks must provide more capital, and governments need credible plans to get their debt under control.

Lagarde worries that some governments lack the political will to shrink rising deficits. That appeared to be a shot at the United States, where Congress has struggled to reach agreement on a deficit-reduction plan.

"The current economic situation is entering a dangerous phase," said Lagarde at a news conference kicking off the annual meetings of the 187-nation International Monetary Fund and its sister lending organization, the World Bank.

Lagarde says nations will make progress this week during the annual meetings and that they will ultimately meet the challenges ahead.

The gathering of world finance leaders comes at a perilous time for the global economy. World markets are plunging on fears that the U.S. economy has weakened and is adding few jobs, while Europe is confronted by a deepening debt crisis.

The Dow Jones industrial average fell more than 400 points at one point Thursday.

"I still think a double-dip recession for the world's major economies is unlikely, but my confidence in that belief is being eroded daily," World Bank President Robert Zoellick said Thursday, warning that the world remained in a "danger zone."

Earlier this week, the IMF slashed its growth forecasts for this year and next. And in a separate report, the IMF said the global financial system is facing its greatest challenges since the 2008 financial crisis.

Europe's troubles center on Greece. The Mediterranean nation could default on its debt next month unless it receives a $10.9 billion installment from a bailout fund managed by the European Central Bank, the European Commission and the IMF.

A default by Greece could destabilize other financially troubled European countries, such as Portugal, Ireland, Spain and Italy. It would also deal a blow to many European banks, which are large holders of Greek government bonds.

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said Thursday that the United States has a huge stake in seeing Europe succeed. He said European governments would "act with more force" to resolve its debt crisis in the coming weeks.

He also said that the IMF had adequate resources to help in the European debt crisis. The IMF is already providing support to a bailout package for Greece.

Olli Rehn, the European Union's top economic official, said the 16 other euro zone countries won't abandon Greece and allow it to default on its massive debts.

"An uncontrolled default or exit of Greece from the euro zone would cause enormous economic and social damage, not only to Greece but to the European Union" and the rest of the world, Rehn said.

The U.S. economy appears to be slightly more stable than Europe. Still, more than two years after the recession officially ended, it is barely growing. Consumer and business confidence is low. In August, employers added no net jobs, and consumers didn't increase their spending on retail goods.

On Wednesday, the Fed said it will try to push long-term interest rates lower and make consumer and business loans cheaper by shifting $400 billion out of short-term Treasury securities and into longer-term bonds. Economists, however, doubt the plan will do much, and stocks plunged after the decision was announced.

President Barack Obama has proposed a $447 billion job-creation package. But the president's lacks support in Congress. Republicans strongly oppose his proposal to pay for it with higher taxes on wealthier households, hedge fund managers and oil companies.

Source: http://us.rd.yahoo.com/dailynews/rss/economy/*http%3A//news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110922/ap_on_bi_ge/us_global_finance

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Wednesday, February 1, 2012

Wall Street bets big on Romney

Wall Street backs Romney.

Mitt Romney led all presidential rivals in contributions from financial services industry firms and workers in 2011, followed by President Obama, Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul and Rick Santorum.

WASHINGTON (CNNMoney) -- Wall Street has thrown its weight behind alum Mitt Romney for president, according to new campaign data for 2011.

But the industry hasn't totally abandoned President Obama, who in 2008 raised more money from the financial industry than any other candidate in history, according to two watchdog groups.

No other candidate came close to the $12 million Romney's campaign raised directly in 2011 from individuals who work at financial firms and banks, which also includes cash from insurance and real estate companies, according to the Center for Responsive Politics.

By comparison, Obama's campaign raised $5 million from people who worked on Wall Street last year, the Center for Responsive Politics reported.

"Romney has raised, far and away, more money,"said Michael Beckel, spokesman for the Center for Responsive Politics. "But the president is still collecting a big chunk of change from finance sector interests."

In addition to Romney's campaign, Wall Street executives opened their wallets to Restore Our Future, a super political action committee that supports Romney indirectly.

It raised about $18 million from July through December 2011, federal records show, with contributions coming from people throughout the industry -- from workers at Bain Capital, the private equity firm Romney founded, to Goldman Sachs (GS, Fortune 500), federal records show.

Romney's big victory in Tuesday's Florida Republican primary was helped by the so-called super PAC. That group paid the tab for negative political advertisements against his main opponent, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich.

High-profile donors to the pro-Romney super PAC include hedge fund managers who each contributed a million dollars: John Paulson of Paulson & Co., Robert Mercer of Renaissance Technologies Corp., Julian Robertson of Tiger Management and Paul Singer of Elliott Management.

That Romney should be popular on Wall Street is no surprise, considering his long career in finance, which includedcreating Bain Capital in 1984. The financial sector contributed more than one in five dollars of the $56 million raised by Romney in 2011, according to the center.

Romney's list of top contributors reads like a who's who of Wall Street: Goldman Sachs, Credit Suisse Group (CS), Morgan Stanley (MS, Fortune 500), Barclays, (BCS) Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500) are all represented on the list. Romney got $496,430 from those associated with Goldman, $317,400 from those who work at JPMorgan and $277,850 from those with links to Morgan Stanley.

When asked about the Wall Street donors, Romney spokeswoman Andrea Saul said: "To the extent anyone is supporting Mitt Romney over President Obama, it is because the state of the economy and the president's failure to create jobs."

Obama has also racked up contributions from big banks, despite his anti-Wall Street rhetoric and his role in creating the largest set of regulatory reforms of the financial sector since the 1930s. Yet, Obama's take from financial firms accounted for just 4% of his overall $125 million war chest through Dec. 31.

The giving from big Wall Street firms was smaller to Obama than to Romney, such as $64,224 from individuals who work at Goldman Sachs, the only financial firm to make a list of top 20 contributors to Obama.

Thanks to his 2008 campaign, the president just barely holds the record for raising the most from the financial sector than any other federal candidate in the past 20 years, according to research by the Sunlight Foundation.

Obama went on to campaign against Wall Street, dubbing its denizens "fat cats" early in his presidency, while trying to get reforms passed. Last year, the president proposed the so-called Buffett rule, a guideline to ensure that millionaires pay a higher percentage of their income in federal taxes than those who make less.

Requests for comment to the Obama campaign were not returned.

Other candidates Wall Street supported in 2011 included former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, with $460,173 raised, Rep. Ron Paul, with $317,524, and former Sen. Rick Santorum with $232,700.

Government watchdog groups said they're concerned about all the money flowing in from Wall Street.

Mary Boyle, a spokeswoman for Common Cause, a nonpartisan political advocacy group, says she expects this general election to be the most expensive race ever, fueled in large part with Wall Street giving.

"They're giving a lot of money, and when industries and individuals are giving a lot of money to a candidate, it's because they want something in return," she said.

-- CNN's Robert Yoon contributed to this report.To top of page

Source: http://rss.cnn.com/~r/rss/money_topstories/~3/TVJ5lGOMQwc/index.htm

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Brazil, China and other emerging markets trail US

, On Sunday November 6, 2011, 12:12 pm EST

NEW YORK (AP) -- It sounded like a can't-miss proposition: Buy the winners, drop the losers.

Developing countries from Brazil to China are expanding much faster than aging economies in the U.S. and Europe, where borrowing during the boom years has been a drag on growth. So the smart money bought stocks in emerging markets, expecting that rapid economic expansion there would provide better rewards. This year, that bet hasn't worked out.

The broadest measure of U.S. stocks, the Standard & Poor's 500 index, is down just 0.4 percent this year. Markets in Brazil, China and the like have lagged far behind, even though their economies are still growing faster than the U.S.

"If you were anywhere in the world other than in the S&P 500 this year, you got crushed," said Greg Peterson, director of research at Ballentine Partners, an investment advisory firm.

The main reason emerging market stocks have suffered deeper losses isn't because their economies are suddenly sluggish. Analysts say it's because people have been worried about the European debt crisis and a possible recession in the U.S. It may seem unfair, but when fear of another financial crisis strikes money managers, they tend to flee emerging markets and stay closer to home.

This summer, panicked money managers dropped the most risky investments first. That meant bonds from deeply indebted countries like Italy and Portugal, small companies in the U.S and emerging market stocks got hit the hardest. Even gold, an asset normally considered safe, dropped as traders shifted money into dollars.

"There was a globalization of fear," says Nathalie Wallace, a senior portfolio manager at Batterymarch Financial Management.

The same thing happened when the U.S. financial crisis hit in 2008. The S&P 500 fell 38.5 percent for the year. But the MSCI Emerging Market index, made up of countries where the banks didn't peddle subprime mortgage bonds, plummeted 47.3 percent.

"Anytime you see risk and fear coming, you see emerging markets get hit a bit more," Wallace says. "It doesn't mean the underlying fundamentals of the economy have changed."

Consider the collection of emerging-market rising stars known as the BRICs, which stands for Brazil, Russia, India and China. All have economies whose growth exceeds the U.S.

-- Brazil: The economy has expanded 3.1 percent over the past year. The benchmark Bovespa has lost 15.3 percent.

-- Russia: Economic growth of 5.1 percent. The Micex has dropped 11.1 percent this year even after a 10 percent rebound in the past month.

-- India: Economic growth of 7.7 percent. The BSE Sensex index is down 14.4 percent.

-- China: Economic growth of 9.1 percent. The Shanghai Composite has slumped 10 percent this year.

By contrast, the U.S. economy has expanded 1.6 percent over the past 12 months. That's sluggish compared to the developing world's stars. And worries that the U.S. could slip into a recession, or that Europe's debt crisis could tip it into one, have weighed on investors for months. Even after those fears dragged down stocks nearly 20 percent in a month, the S&P 500 outshines indexes in nearly all of the world's fastest growing economies.

In fact, if you rank the U.S. against emerging markets this year, it places ahead of 20 countries and behind just one, Indonesia.

China and other emerging markets long relied on shipping toys, timber and other goods to consumers in the U.S. and Europe. Trade helped them grow. But that has a downside, says Tim Morris, a portfolio manager at J.P. Morgan's asset management unit. When a small country hitches its fortunes to U.S. shoppers, it's bound to suffer when the U.S. economy slows down.

A related problem for many emerging market countries is that they're dominated by energy and material producers, the type of companies most vulnerable to a global slowdown. Todd Henry, an emerging markets equity specialist at T. Rowe Price, points to Brazil, a country that isn't as dependent on exports for growth. "It's a relatively closed economy," Henry says. "But commodity and energy companies make up a large part of their stock market. So if the world is slowing down, that gets priced in."

The largest company in Brazil's stock index is the oil giant Petrobras. When the U.S. economy looks weak, the price of oil falls and the companies that sell oil fall, too. That pushes down Petrobras, which tugs on the Bovespa. In other words, when the U.S. has the sniffles, Brazil's stock market still catches a cold.

"Americans tend to think our problems are limited to the U.S.," says Richard Bernstein, chief executive officer of Richard Bernstein Advisors LLC. "But our problems are their problems, too."

Source: http://us.rd.yahoo.com/finance/news/rss/story/*http%3A//us.rd.yahoo.com/finance/news/topfinstories/*http%3A//biz.yahoo.com/ap/111106/us_wall_street_week_ahead.html

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For Britain to flourish, so�must capitalism

It is therefore politically brave of David Cameron to have launched a fully fledged defence of the free-market system. Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg seem intent only on taming and restricting it, of forcing it through intervention to become more socially responsible. In the present environment, this is an altogether easier message. Mr Cameron, by contrast, wants to embrace capitalism. He is right to do so. The solution to our problems does not lie in ever greater regulation and government interference, or indeed in socially levelling forms of taxation, but, as Mr Cameron says, in enterprise, innovation and competition.

To the extent that capitalism has gone wrong, it is because it was allowed to become corrupted and hijacked by vested interests. Capitalism?s tendency towards excess and self-destruction is a matter of well-documented record and repeated regret. As long ago as the 18th century, Adam Smith noted that ?as soon as the land of any country has all become private property, the landlords, like all other men, love to reap where they never sowed, and demand a rent even for its natural produce?.

It?s an observation that could have been written to describe the behaviour of modern finance. But it is the very antithesis of the way capitalism is meant to work in creating growth, employment and income for all.

Mr Cameron instinctively grasps capitalism?s awesome powers of wealth creation, as well as its flaws. The problem is that he is failing to match rhetoric with policy. His speech was eloquent, but where?s the beef?

It is no accident that America is emerging, reinvigorated, from this crisis far earlier than are the UK and Europe. This is because the US remains far more openly capitalist, and has allowed the process of Darwinian renewal to kick in. In Europe, problems such as under-capitalised banks and protected industries have been allowed to fester.

With the British economy flatlining, there is lamentably little sign of the sort of supply-side, free-market reforms necessary to restore growth and jobs. This newspaper has long advocated such measures ? in particular, the removal of the 50 per cent tax band, which is acting as a strong disincentive to work and wealth creation, and the tax-neutral initiative of National Insurance holidays for new employees.

Warts and all, capitalism works. But it will not function properly if it is gummed up by a mix of well-meaning but counter-productive social goals and a failure of political ambition.

Source: http://telegraph.feedsportal.com/c/32726/f/568312/s/1c011e2a/l/0L0Stelegraph0O0Ccomment0Ctelegraph0Eview0C90A278150CFor0EBritain0Eto0Eflourish0Esomust0Ecapitalism0Bhtml/story01.htm

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Carnival reviewing cruise ship safety

Published: Jan. 21, 2012 at 2:44 PM

MIAMI, Jan. 21 (UPI) -- Carnival Corp., the U.S.-based parent of the operator of the Costa Concordia, says it'll review all its cruise ships' safety and emergency-response procedures.

The review, which comes in response to the Costa Concordia disaster that has left at least 12 people dead, will examine the procedures at all 10 Carnival lines, the company said in a news release.

The company said it has had an "excellent safety record over the years."

"However, this tragedy has called into question our company's safety and emergency-response procedures and practices," Micky Arison, Carnival's chairman and chief executive officer, said in a statement.

"While I have every confidence in the safety of our vessels and the professionalism of our crews, this review will evaluate all practices and procedures to make sure that this kind of accident doesn't happen again."

The review is being led by Capt. James Hunn, a retired U.S. Navy captain and Carnival's senior vice president of Maritime Policy & Compliance. Hunn has held senior positions at Carnival nearly a decade focusing on maritime policy and overseeing health, environmental, safety and security practices.

Miami-based Carnival also said its Health, Environment, Safety & Security Committee is enlisting outside industry experts to review all emergency-response and safety procedures and to conduct a "thorough review" of the Costa Concordia accident.

Costa Cruises Chairman Pier Luigi Foschi this week said the captain deviated from frequently traveled routes.

Schettino, 57, is under house arrest, accused of manslaughter, causing a shipwreck and abandoning ship before all passengers were evacuated. Prosecutors he was sailing too close to Giglio on an unauthorized course to perform a "salute" -- a greeting to islanders.

Carnival stock closed Friday at $31.56, down 35 cents, or 1.1 percent on the day.

Source: http://www.upi.com/Business_News/2012/01/21/Carnival-reviewing-cruise-ship-safety/UPI-28071327175099/

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NABE survey: More see U.S. economy growing

Published: Jan. 23, 2012 at 12:01 AM

WASHINGTON, Jan. 23 (UPI) -- An increasing number of business economists and policymakers say U.S. economic growth will top 2 percent this year, a national survey released Monday indicated.

But most saw the job situation staying about the same, the National Association for Business Economics survey showed.

Sixty percent of respondents said they expected real gross domestic product to top 2 percent growth from last year's fourth quarter to this year's -- 44 percentage points more than in October, when 16 percent said real GDP growth would beat 2 percent growth for the same period, NABE said.

In the current survey, 28 percent suggested real GDP would grow 1.1 percent to 2 percent, compared with 70 percent who held this view in the previous survey.

In both the current and previous survey, very few respondents said they expected real GDP growth above 3 percent, NABE said.

GDP is the total value of U.S. goods and services, whether they are produced by a U.S. company or a foreign company operating in the United States. It is the single most comprehensive indicator of an economy's health.

The U.S. Commerce Department said last month real GDP from the second quarter to the third quarter increased at an annual rate of 1.8 percent. Between the first and second quarters, real GDP increased 1.3 percent, the department said.

Fourth-quarter figures are to be released in March.

Regarding employment, 27 percent said they expected employment to rise, compared with October's 29 percent, while 64 percent said they saw employment staying the same, a 5-point jump from October's 59 percent.

Eight percent said they expected employment to drop, compared with October's 12 percent.

Survey respondents are NABE members who work for private-sector companies and industry trade associations. They are involved in goods-producing industries, transportation, utilities, information, communications, finance, insurance, real estate and services.

Source: http://www.upi.com/Business_News/2012/01/23/NABE-survey-More-see-US-economy-growing/UPI-88631327294860/

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Companies need to gain from their altruism

His speech writer is erroneously attributing to a system for distributing resources characteristics that are uniquely human.

It's not capitalism that needs to change, it's people that need to change. The market, capitalism's modus operandi, is blind to what may or may not be considered socially responsible and has no interest in being popular.

What the Prime Minister's words really mean is that people should be socially responsible and genuinely popular, specifically people running companies.

Put like that his ideas take on a little more meaning. Many companies already have some understanding of what's socially responsible. If that makes them popular so be it, but popularity per se is not something companies should be concerned with beyond existing issues of reputation and brand which are already important boardroom matters.

A "John Lewis" economy would be no more popular than the current version, especially when the brave new shareholder democracy was told to write a few expensive cheques and risk more of their capital to keep the economy growing.

What politicians are really hoping for, but can't quite articulate it, is that companies will adopt a more altruistic attitude towards the environment and communities around them.

Which they will, many already do, but it's a form of self-interested altruism that is designed to ultimately improve shareholder value. It will be part of the business plan, whether politicians like it or not, and it will be people's motives, including the profit motive, that will decide what is or isn't responsible for companies to do.

damian.reece@telegraph.co.uk

Source: http://telegraph.feedsportal.com/c/32726/f/568312/s/1bf987da/l/0L0Stelegraph0O0Cfinance0Ccomment0Cdamianreece0C90A267410CCompanies0Eneed0Eto0Egain0Efrom0Etheir0Ealtruism0Bhtml/story01.htm

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Warnings mount on euro crisis as G20 gathers (Reuters)

WASHINGTON/FRANKFURT (Reuters) ? Seven world leaders on Thursday demanded Europe act more decisively to quell its debt crisis and a European Central Bank study warned that the entire euro currency project was now in peril.

As the world's top finance chiefs gathered for talks in Washington, an open letter by the leaders of Australia, Canada, Indonesia, Britain, Mexico, South Africa and South Korea stressed the risk of the euro zone crisis spreading worldwide.

"Euro zone governments and institutions must act swiftly to resolve the euro crisis and all European economies must confront the debt overhang to prevent contagion to the wider global economy," the leaders wrote in the letter to France, currently chair of the Group of 20 leading economies.

As stock prices around the world fell on fears of a new economic slump, U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner stepped up his warnings to Europe to act quickly to stem the crisis and provide enough resources to prevent a Greek default. But he expressed faith Europe would act.

"They recognize that if you let, as the United States did in the early part of 2008, the momentum of these concerns build, they're very hard to arrest, much more expensive to arrest," Geithner told a forum in Washington. "So you're going to see them act with more force in the coming weeks and months."

Finance ministers from the G20 leading developed and emerging economies will meet for dinner in Washington on Thursday to discuss the crisis, but they have no plans to issue a communique to outline a response.

That may be disappoint investors already alarmed about the inability of policymakers to come together to tackle the world's economic problems as they did to fight the financial crisis of 2007-09.

World stocks plunged on Thursday as investors fretted over the grim global growth outlook including data pointing to a slowdown in China, one of the world's key economic engines.

European stocks fell around 4.5 percent and the Dow Jones Industrials were down nearly 4 percent.

Investors flooded into the safe haven of U.S. Treasury debt pushing yields to new lows a day after the Federal Reserve announced a plan to shift its balance sheet to longer-dated paper to keep lending rates low and bolster the U.S. economy.

The European Union's monetary affairs commissioner, Olli Rehn, vowed that European leaders would not allow an uncontrolled Greek default, nor would the country leave the euro zone.

Rehn did not rule out the possibility of a Greek debt restructuring, but said this would be difficult to do in an "orderly" way.

In Athens, Prime Minister George Papandreou said further austerity measures were vital to Greece, even as workers striking in protest shut down the country's transport system.

"There is no other path. The other path is bankruptcy, which would have heavy consequences for every household," he said after a meeting in parliament with deputies from his ruling Socialist party.

ECB WARNS EURO IN DANGER

The ECB study was a parting shot from ECB chief economist Juergen Stark, who resigned this month after opposing the bank's policy of buying troubled countries' bonds. It was perhaps the most strongly-worded warning about the future of the euro from a central banker.

"Greatly increased fiscal imbalances in the euro area as a whole and the dire situation in individual member countries risk undermining stability, growth and employment, as well as the sustainability of (Europe's Economic and Monetary Union) itself," said the research paper, which was published by the ECB but not endorsed by it.

The study co-authored by Stark recommended euro zone countries face tough new debt rules, have their deficits approved at a European level and if they reneged, face automatic fines.

The European Union's new super-watchdog, the European Systemic Risk Board, warned that the knock-on effects of the debt crisis that began in Greece in 2009 had led to considerably higher risks of financial instability in Europe.

"The high inter-connectedness in the EU financial system has led to a rapidly rising risk of significant contagion. This threatens financial stability in the EU as a whole and adversely impacts the real economy in Europe and beyond."

The board, chaired by ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet, called for "decisive and swift action" from policymakers, widely seen as being slow in the fight to contain the crisis.

The IMF has pressed for a recapitalization of European banks -- and has faced some opposition from bank executives and EU governments who have argued balance sheets in the region are sound.

Canadian Finance Minister Jim Flaherty also joined the chorus of non-European officials warning that a new global credit crunch could bite if Europe failed to act quickly.

Flaherty told the Canadian Broadcasting Corp that European nations could "get ahead of the game" if they were prepared to increase the euro zone's bailout funds to 1 trillion euros from 440 billion euros.

BANKS IN FOCUS

The crisis has raised pressure on European banks, and particularly French lenders, which are heavily exposed to Greece and other troubled euro zone sovereigns.

France's biggest bank, BNP Paribas denied a Reuters report that it was in talks with the Gulf state of Qatar on taking a stake in the bank.

French finance Minister Francois Baroin told reporters in Washington that any liquidity problems for euro zone banks were addressed by global central bank efforts to set up new liquidity facilities last week.

He said the euro zone's top priority is "reducing deficits as quickly as possible." Leveraging Europe's bailout fund could be achieved at a later date to "give it more systemic firepower."

(Additional reporting by David Ljunggren in Ottawa, Regan Doherty in Qatar, Daniel Flynn Jan Strupczewski, Rachelle Younglai and Lesley Wroughton in Washington, Lionel Laurent and Julien Ponthus in Paris, Ross Finley in London, Lefteris Papadimas in Athens, Martin Santa in Frankfurt; Writing by Paul Taylor and David Lawder; Editing by Andrea Ricci)

Source: http://us.rd.yahoo.com/dailynews/rss/business/*http%3A//news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20110922/bs_nm/us_g20

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Brazil, China and other emerging markets trail US

, On Sunday November 6, 2011, 12:12 pm EST

NEW YORK (AP) -- It sounded like a can't-miss proposition: Buy the winners, drop the losers.

Developing countries from Brazil to China are expanding much faster than aging economies in the U.S. and Europe, where borrowing during the boom years has been a drag on growth. So the smart money bought stocks in emerging markets, expecting that rapid economic expansion there would provide better rewards. This year, that bet hasn't worked out.

The broadest measure of U.S. stocks, the Standard & Poor's 500 index, is down just 0.4 percent this year. Markets in Brazil, China and the like have lagged far behind, even though their economies are still growing faster than the U.S.

"If you were anywhere in the world other than in the S&P 500 this year, you got crushed," said Greg Peterson, director of research at Ballentine Partners, an investment advisory firm.

The main reason emerging market stocks have suffered deeper losses isn't because their economies are suddenly sluggish. Analysts say it's because people have been worried about the European debt crisis and a possible recession in the U.S. It may seem unfair, but when fear of another financial crisis strikes money managers, they tend to flee emerging markets and stay closer to home.

This summer, panicked money managers dropped the most risky investments first. That meant bonds from deeply indebted countries like Italy and Portugal, small companies in the U.S and emerging market stocks got hit the hardest. Even gold, an asset normally considered safe, dropped as traders shifted money into dollars.

"There was a globalization of fear," says Nathalie Wallace, a senior portfolio manager at Batterymarch Financial Management.

The same thing happened when the U.S. financial crisis hit in 2008. The S&P 500 fell 38.5 percent for the year. But the MSCI Emerging Market index, made up of countries where the banks didn't peddle subprime mortgage bonds, plummeted 47.3 percent.

"Anytime you see risk and fear coming, you see emerging markets get hit a bit more," Wallace says. "It doesn't mean the underlying fundamentals of the economy have changed."

Consider the collection of emerging-market rising stars known as the BRICs, which stands for Brazil, Russia, India and China. All have economies whose growth exceeds the U.S.

-- Brazil: The economy has expanded 3.1 percent over the past year. The benchmark Bovespa has lost 15.3 percent.

-- Russia: Economic growth of 5.1 percent. The Micex has dropped 11.1 percent this year even after a 10 percent rebound in the past month.

-- India: Economic growth of 7.7 percent. The BSE Sensex index is down 14.4 percent.

-- China: Economic growth of 9.1 percent. The Shanghai Composite has slumped 10 percent this year.

By contrast, the U.S. economy has expanded 1.6 percent over the past 12 months. That's sluggish compared to the developing world's stars. And worries that the U.S. could slip into a recession, or that Europe's debt crisis could tip it into one, have weighed on investors for months. Even after those fears dragged down stocks nearly 20 percent in a month, the S&P 500 outshines indexes in nearly all of the world's fastest growing economies.

In fact, if you rank the U.S. against emerging markets this year, it places ahead of 20 countries and behind just one, Indonesia.

China and other emerging markets long relied on shipping toys, timber and other goods to consumers in the U.S. and Europe. Trade helped them grow. But that has a downside, says Tim Morris, a portfolio manager at J.P. Morgan's asset management unit. When a small country hitches its fortunes to U.S. shoppers, it's bound to suffer when the U.S. economy slows down.

A related problem for many emerging market countries is that they're dominated by energy and material producers, the type of companies most vulnerable to a global slowdown. Todd Henry, an emerging markets equity specialist at T. Rowe Price, points to Brazil, a country that isn't as dependent on exports for growth. "It's a relatively closed economy," Henry says. "But commodity and energy companies make up a large part of their stock market. So if the world is slowing down, that gets priced in."

The largest company in Brazil's stock index is the oil giant Petrobras. When the U.S. economy looks weak, the price of oil falls and the companies that sell oil fall, too. That pushes down Petrobras, which tugs on the Bovespa. In other words, when the U.S. has the sniffles, Brazil's stock market still catches a cold.

"Americans tend to think our problems are limited to the U.S.," says Richard Bernstein, chief executive officer of Richard Bernstein Advisors LLC. "But our problems are their problems, too."

Source: http://us.rd.yahoo.com/finance/news/rss/story/*http%3A//us.rd.yahoo.com/finance/news/topfinstories/*http%3A//biz.yahoo.com/ap/111106/us_wall_street_week_ahead.html

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