Sunday, October 2, 2011

Let's hope this economic crisis doesn't turn into a record-breaking recession

It's true there are plenty of parallels between now and the financial crisis of 2008. But there's also one big difference. Post Lehman Brothers, there was a global political attempt to address the problem. This time, our so-called leaders are taking their cue from the eurozone's bickering politicos ? the ones who disappeared on holiday when Greece defaulted on July 21.

Until the eurozone's 17 members fix Ouzoland ? which needs another ?159bn (�139bn) on top of the first ?110bn bailout ? chaos will reign. Chancellor George Osborne might make himself feel better by giving the 17 states "six weeks to resolve the eurozone crisis" but he's pretty powerless. Every one of them has to ratify an increase to the region's ?440bn bailout fund ? and, politically, few can face it.

Meanwhile, the uncertainty is feeding into real economic activity. Royal Bank of Scotland economists, spooked by this week's PMI data, now reckon Europe is heading for "a full-blown recession" ? not surprising, perhaps, when US money market funds won't lend to the region's banks (particularly French ones) because of their exposure to Greece. Across the Atlantic, the Fed's warnings of "significant downside risks to the economic outlook" overshadowed the tricksy "Operation Twist" ? swapping $400bn (�259bn) short-dated bonds for longer-dated ones.

With nothing but inanities from political leaders, no wonder the VIX volatility index ? a popular gauge of market fear - has shot up almost 35pc this week.

It's times like these that you really need someone like Lee Hang Chai, who has just set a new world record for the number of teleportation illusions performed in one minute. Maybe someone should put him in charge.

Not such an easy time with Stelios

That said, at least we've had one Greek bail-out this week.

Step forward, Sir Stelios Haji-Ioannou, who's at last in line for a cash return from easyJet ? even if he has to share the �71m winging his way with his bruv and sis.

Please don't infer that the airline's Greek-born founder actually needs the money ? as space is tight on the desk for any more letters from Schillings, his libel lawyers. Oh no, Stelios is hugely wealthy. Literally. Even richer, probably, than Greece.

That caveat out of the way, isn't it amazing how all principles vanish when faced with a 37.4pc share of �190m? Earlier this month Stelios requisitioned an EGM in an attempt to boot his compatriot, non-executive Professor Rigas Doganis, off the easyJet board. The reason? The part the Prof played, apparently, in rubber-stamping an aircraft order from Airbus.

Asked why Doganis should be singled out for a decision taken by the entire board, including four other non-execs, Sir Stelios fumed: "I think it is about time that salaried employees pay for the mistakes they make with other people's money."

On Friday, 24 hours after news of the looming cash return, Stelios called off the EGM ? and then bravely ducked requests for an explanation.

Apart from the money, maybe he's finally worked out that he was bound to lose the vote. It's not that other investors do not share his concerns about easyJet's capacity growth in turbulent markets. Or his desire for higher returns on equity, and dividends. It's just that they object to random attacks on non-execs and debates conducted with all the finesse of a toddler on a supermarket floor denied a bag of fun-size Mars bars.

The worry for easyJet, of course, is that Stelios concludes his approach actually works ? and, like Greece itself, is quickly back for more. Though why would he do that ? he doesn't need the money, does he?

alistair.osborne@telegraph.co.uk

Source: http://telegraph.feedsportal.com/c/32726/f/568312/s/18d2b8e4/l/0L0Stelegraph0O0Cfinance0Ccomment0Calistair0Eosborne0C87856690CLets0Ehope0Ethis0Eeconomic0Ecrisis0Edoesnt0Eturn0Einto0Ea0Erecord0Ebreaking0Erecession0Bhtml/story01.htm

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