Thursday, April 7, 2011

Spain's tough stance makes it different from the rest

However Madrid, fully conscious of how market prophecies can become self-fulfilling, has done its utmost to differentiate itself from other risky-looking PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and itself).

The Spanish government has not balked from aggressive moves to bring down its deficit, raising its pension age from 65 to 67, increasing taxes and cutting public sector wages. It has also injected small amounts of capital into the weakest banks, but did not repeat Ireland's mistake of guaranteeing bank creditors.

Madrid now expects to cut its deficit down to 6pc as a share of GDP for this year. In contrast, in the run-up to its bail-out, Portugal saw its latest bout of austerity measures rejected by parliament.

Needless to say, investors prefer the Spanish way. Spain's 10-year debt is trading with a yield, or return, of about 5pc, compared to the record 9pc yield on its Portuguese counterpart earlier this week.

The likelihood that Spain will default on its debt over the next five years is viewed by markets at around one in seven, according to a Capital Economics analysis of credit default swaps ? insurance instruments ? on its government debt. Traders think Greece is more likely than not to default and put the risk for Ireland and Portugal at more than one in three, they said.

Spain may also have benefited from fears that as the eurozone's fourth largest economy it is simply "too big to bail", as it would put the area's rescue system under too much strain - a politically-fraught scenario which could even threaten the euro.

One theory is that while Ireland was pressed to take a bail-out, Portugal was allowed to delay the inevitable ? thus keeping the bond vigilantes' attention ? while Spain took steps to bolster its finances.

That meant when Portugal's well-flagged bail-out materialised, Elena Salgado, Spain's economy minister, could plausibly say "it has been some time since the markets have known that our economy is much more competitive". But safety is not guaranteed.

The European Central Bank's decision on Thursday to raise interest rates across the eurozone will keep the pressure on Spain, where many mortgage holders are on variable-rate deals. Madrid cut its growth forecasts on Wednesday due to the likely impact of higher rates coupled with rising oil prices.

As with Ireland, even with the government apparently on the fiscally cautious path, the state of the banking sector is a major worry. Spain's central bank chief warned this week that the worst could still be yet to come for the country's banks.

Above all, Spain faces a liquidity risk ? running out of funds ? as it tries to cut its deficit against the backdrop of high unemployment, its property crash and shaky banking system, the Economist Intelligence Unit said.

Nonetheless, its researchers concluded: "Provided Spain can thread the needle on stabilising its still low [total] public debt, while maintaining social stability and saving its banking system, it can avoid a bail-out and return to reasonable economic growth."

No siestas for Ms Salgado for a while, it would seem.

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