Friday, July 29, 2011

No truth behind 'sell in May' adage

Analysts at Evolution Securities said the maxim ? dating back to the City's earlier days when it all but shut down as staff departed en masse for summer events like Henley, Wimbledon and Ascot ? certainly "hangs over the market".

Despite the rise of round-the-clock markets and computerised trading, some think there is still logic in the maxim, pointing to a tendency for people to invest their bonuses earlier in the year and for analysts to upgrade their forecasts for companies around the start of the year, which tends to buoy up shares.

However, while the average performance in the summer months in the UK, European and US markets did point to lower monthly returns, this was down to recessions in 1981, 2001, 2002 and 2008.

Excluding these, no more than half of the May-to-September periods over the last three decades saw equities fall. Slumps took place in just 10 of the 30 years in the US, 12 in the UK and 15 in Europe. "The success of 'sell in May and go away...' rests on a few key recessionary years," Evolution concluded.

Philip Isherwood, one of the strategists behind the research, said: "Given where we are in the economic cycle and messages of economic strength we are being given... my view is that instead of economic and corporate reality being superseded by seasonality, I think seasonality should be superseded."

A separate analysis of the FTSE 100 from F&C Investments backed the message. Its researchers looked at the closing level of the blue-chip index's shares on April 30 and September 10 (the date of the next St Leger horse race) for every year in the past decade. They found there were four summers when the index climbed and six when it fell, with both the average rise and drop coming in at around 9pc.

Jason Hollands, head of corporate affairs at F&C Investments, said that rather than worrying about "old wives' tales", investors might be better off enjoying all the summer can offer.

"The fact that 'sell in May' has historically been wrong about as much as it has been right suggests that 'do nothing' could well be the best option," he said.

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