"Departments need to make more fundamental changes to achieve sustainable reductions of the scale demanded by the Spending Review," it warned. "Short-term measures, though successful to date, will not be sufficient." Failing to do so would be so deeply damaging to front-line services that the politics would inevitably get ugly.
There is no alternative to the Treasury's fantasy cuts, though, the IFS stressed. The black hole blown in the public finances since 2008 is now estimated to be �114bn ? of which �102bn can be blamed squarely on the financial crisis with the other �12bn put down to Labour's over-optimism, the IFS said. Under Labour's March 2010 �73bn consolidation plan, it added, the deficit would only have fallen from this year's �127bn to �76bn in April 2017 ? �52bn more than under the Coalition.
Remarkably, for all that pain, in historic terms the cuts will only return UK public spending in 2017 to the same real-terms level as it was in 2005. What has made the consolidation so difficult to stomach, though, were the "12 years of consecutive real increases" in spending from 1999 to 2010.
"People get used to the high level of services they enjoy and then adjust their expectations," Ms Crawford said. "Fiscal repair is a bit like going to the dentist. You know it's going to hurt but it'll be better in the long run if you do it."
Of course, growth is vital to trimming the UK deficit, which the IFS noted was larger in 2007 than in all other leading economies bar Ireland, Greece and Portugal. But, Mr Johnson said, there is little the UK can do that isn't "fiddling" at the edges. Even a temporary �10bn to �20bn net giveaway in the March Budget ? through VAT, 2p off income tax, a National Insurance holiday, or investment spending ? would deliver negligible growth, while risking fiscal credibility.
"We're talking about GDP growth of one or two tenths of a percent more," Mr Johnson said. "What's driving the economy is what's going on in the rest of the world."
With the world in such perilous condition, the IFS judged it best that the Chancellor to stay his hand. Any firepower should be reserved for fighting the nasty recession a eurozone break-up would cause. Under Oxford Economics' scenario of Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Spain and Italy all leaving the euro, the UK would be plunged into a contraction of 1.7pc this year and 0.9pc next. Unemployment, which it expects to top 9pc in 2012, would hit 10.7pc.
In that event, "the case for a fiscal stimulus package would be strengthened considerably", the IFS said, arguing that George Osborne should outline a Plan B for the potential meltdown in the Budget "to avoid accusations that he was changing direction".
The bigger goal is to get the "micro policy right", Mr Johnson said, by ensuring the tax system is efficient and effective. Beyond that, the Treasury's best hope is that the Europeans can lift Britain out of the rabbit hole.
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