Friday, May 27, 2011

Is now the time to sell shares?

Mr Ventre's concerns lie in US volatility, and this could have ramifications for global stock markets.

"It's possible that there will be much more significant budget cuts in the US than the market is expecting," he said. "The US consumer is trapped in the doldrums, with confidence suppressed by high unemployment, a high oil price and a depressed housing market. A sustained high oil price is in danger of creating demand destruction, slowing global economic growth.

"I don't see a big upside for developed equity markets over the next few months. I think that we will be better able to take advantage of the opportunities that these risks are likely to create over the coming months if we keep some powder dry."

The "sell in May" strategy is not without its academic credentials.

A study by Professor Ben Jacobsen of the Rotterdam School of Management and Sven Bouman of Aegon Asset Management in The Hague concluded: "Surprisingly, we found this inherited wisdom of sell in May to be true in 36 of 37 developed and emerging markets. Evidence shows that in Britain the seasonal effect has been noticeable since 1694."

American investor Sy Harding of the Street Smart Report adopts a seasonal strategy because "markets around the world have made most of their gains in a 'favourable season' that runs from roughly November to May. And they have suffered most of their losses in an 'unfavourable season' that runs roughly from May to November."

Mr Harding added: "The old-time market maxim 'sell in May and go away' has been proven not only in our substantial research but also in numerous academic studies over the years." He admits that the strategy does not win every year ? it failed to outperform the market in 2003, 2006 and 2009. "There is no strategy, nor even the world's best-known investors or money-managers, that beat the market in every individual year," he said.

Not everyone is convinced that selling out of equities and sitting on the sidelines until September is the right strategy. Even Mr Harding admitted that the key was when to buy again ? and he reckons that September is too early. He believes that November is the better month.

Evolution Securities highlights that the adage was originally based on agricultural cycles and their impact on borrowing rates. However, its research suggests, it is worth noting that the seasonal shift involves an implicit sector rotation as well.

Within the European and British equity markets, defensive shares such as beverages, food producers, tobacco, pharmaceuticals, food retailers and utilities all outperform May to September. In January to April, it is the likes of travel and leisure, construction, engineering, electronics, oil equipment, industrial metals and media stocks that do better.

But F&C, the fund manager, is even more cynical. It said that over the past decade the FTSE 100 had fallen during six summer periods, suggesting that shares were just as likely to rise as they were to fall. Jason Hollands of F&C said: "Rather than worrying about old wives' tales, perhaps investors would be better off relaxing and enjoying the royal wedding and all that the summer has to offer.

"The fact that 'sell in May' has historically been wrong about as much as it has been right suggests that 'do nothing' could well be the best option."

Yet despite Mr Hollands' words, many fund managers, while not following the adage, are in a cautious mood given the global economic uncertainty. Tom Becket, the chief investment officer of PSigma Investment Management, warned that there was a "danger of a correction in the coming months", given all the enthusiasm that has been generated by the excellent corporate reporting season.

"The recent results from global companies have relit the blue touch paper for global equity markets and re-inspired confidence in global investors, ensuring that sentiment now seems wildly bullish for risk assets," he said.

"However, it is probably only a matter of time before investors once again start to worry about the as yet unresolved macro issues, including the perilous state of developed world governments' finances, issues in the global bond markets, currency volatility and interest rate rises. Certainly, volatility will remain very high."

Given the uncertainty, Brian Dennehy of Dennehy Weller & Co wouldn't blame investors for being cautious this summer ? he is also concerned that three major issues, namely the eurozone crisis, China's slowdown and the US recovery, have yet to be resolved. "The downside for the FTSE 100 is 4,800, with the possibility of 6,200 in the very short term before investors begin to 'look down'," he said. "In this environment it remains sensible to look out for sustainable dividends [to compensate you for the short-term uncertainty] and, for the patient, to keep some powder dry for the cheap buying opportunities that will emerge."

Mr Dennehy suggested the Insight Absolute fund for its "ability to deliver in a range of environments with very limited volatility".

Alan Steel of Alan Steel Asset Management said investors needed to be cautious because selling shares and funds could trigger capital gains tax bills and charges, wiping out any potential benefit.

"If readers have big profits from international funds especially, and have tax-efficient investments such as Isas and offshore bonds where switches are not liable to tax, then they should consider switching to cautious funds."

Troy Trojan, M&G Cautious Multi Asset and Franklin Templeton Global Bond are decent alternatives, Mr Steel added. "But many advisers will charge you 1pc for coming out of a fund and 1pc investing in another, so be careful."

Mr Steel isn't alone in advising investors not to be rash. Mark Dampier of Hargreaves Lansdown isn't going to be swayed by the "sell in May" adage.

"Like all stock market adages there have been times when this has been right, yet today despite being gloomy on the economy I am still bullish on the markets," he said. "This year they have had everything thrown at them, from earthquakes to wars, debt and price rises but still the market hasn't collapsed."

Besides, timing the market is fraught with danger. Terry Smith, the investment maverick, can't abide by fashion and fads and follows the buy and hold strategy.

Last year he launched Fundsmith, a new low-cost fund that would invest in only about two dozen stocks and then hold on to them. He often recalls the story of an investor who bought a bunch of shares, put them in a coffee can and left them for years. His wife initially bought the same shares but tinkered with her portfolio frequently. When he died, his wife discovered that his portfolio was worth much more than hers (see The 'coffee can? investor showed the value of buying and holding).

And while PSigma's Mr Becket is expecting volatility, he does not advocate a wholesale profit-taking strategy ? more a rejigging of portfolios.

"We don't necessarily think that one should be selling aggressively in May, but at some point later this year it will be time to be going very defensive again," he said. "For now, we would keep the faith with equities, as long as you can stomach the volatility that we expect."

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