Sunday, December 25, 2011

Asia growth downgrade hits recovery hopes

More worrying, however, was that Fitch also cited the "lagged impact of policy tightening in some countries, including the region's two giants, China and India".

Fitch has previously warned that China is less efficient at turning credit into GDP growth than it was four years ago.

At face value, though, the region has much better shock-absorbers if they are needed. "Emerging Asia's sovereign creditworthiness is supported by strong or improving public and external finances, as well as relatively strong medium-term growth prospects for most countries," Fitch said.

China's public debt is just 15pc of GDP, according to the IMF, and the country is growing at about 8pc annually.

However, the country is facing massive political pressure ? from the US in particular ? to let its currency strengthen and boost its domestic economy through greater consumption.

HSBC recently cut its forecasts for the emerging markets to just 5.3pc, holding global growth down to 1.9pc next year.

Fitch added that "high-income Asia" is not so well-placed. Japan is on negative watch for a ratings downgrade "on concerns over medium term government debt dynamics". New Zealand was recently downgraded, but Australia joined Singapore among the AAA nations last month.

Source: http://telegraph.feedsportal.com/c/32726/f/568312/s/1b387b66/l/0L0Stelegraph0O0Cfinance0Cfinancialcrisis0C89760A850CAsia0Egrowth0Edowngrade0Ehits0Erecovery0Ehopes0Bhtml/story01.htm

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