Given all that, then, you risk being seen not so much as a contrarian, but a blockhead, to claim that things, maybe, are looking up. Of course, you can?t be sure about it. And neither is it possible to build a coherent world economic view. But there are fragments to shore against the ruins, so to speak ? and not just the hope that the feelgood factor must return, in Britain at least, with the London Olympics and the Queen?s Diamond Jubilee.
For starters, some historical perspective. Whatever the Guv?nor may say, this ain?t the 1930s. Sure, there are technical comparisons ? bombed-out banks, a crisis of money supply and painfully sub-trend growth. Indeed, Citigroup?s chief economist Michael Saunders has predicted it will take 27 quarters, or the end of 2014, for UK GDP to overtake the pre-recession peak it reached in the first quarter of 2008 ? much longer than the 16 quarters it took for recovery in the 1930s.
But there the comparisons end. We are not in a world of soup kitchens, Jarrow marches, falling prices or the sort of grinding poverty that went unchecked before the post-war welfare state. Put in that context, today?s talk of financial Armageddon is pure hyperbole. Neither is there any need to stock up on tins of baked beans.
In a much more joined-up world, both economically and personally ? thanks to the internet ? we can take heart also that the world?s biggest economy is spluttering back to life. Almost all the recent economic data from America shows glimmers of recovery.
Take US jobs. This week saw new claims for unemployment benefits drop unexpectedly to 364,000 ? the lowest level since April 2008 ? defying the doomsters who were predicting a rise to 380,000. The jobless rate is now down to 8.6 per cent, hardly healthy, but an improvement on the 9 per cent plus that it?s been stuck at for more than two years.
America?s housing market, the one whose subprime mortgages blew the roof off the world economy back in 2008, looks in better shape, too. New homes are being built at the fastest pace since April 2010. Elsewhere, household debt is coming down, with Americans spending just over 11 per cent of their after-tax income servicing loans in the third quarter of 2011 versus 14 per cent in 2007.
There are plenty of American economists predicting US growth of 3 per cent next year ? and that?s before accounting for likely econ-friendly policy initiatives from the Obama administration in what is, after all, an election year.
What, though, if there is a chaotic collapse of the eurozone? That would halt all progress in America ? and anywhere else for that matter. But how likely is that?
Jeremy Cook, World First?s chief economist, admits he is no ?natural optimist? but still reckons ?the great and the good of the European political system will come to their senses in 2012 and a lasting resolution to the continent?s debt problems will be found?.
Admittedly, this will only come after ?another brush with the apocalypse?, he says, suggesting possible triggers as ?three bad business confidence numbers from the Germans, France?s credit rating being cut, social unrest in Italy or the fall of another government?. There are other possibilities, too. What of the requirement for Italy and Spain to refinance more than �450 billion of debts ? something that should concentrate the minds of the eurozone?s shilly-shallying leaders. Or the risk of a big German or French bank being brought to its knees by its eurozone exposure?
Philip Shaw, chief economist at Investec, is similarly ?hopeful that a relatively orderly solution will be reached in the first couple of months of 2012, resulting in greater optimism over world economic prospects?. And Goldman Sachs has pinned a broadly bullish 2012 forecast for Europe, entitled Despair into Hope, on ?some resolution to the eurozone debt crisis in the next few months?.
Assuming a eurozone fix, Goldman reckons UK investors can look forward to the FTSE-100 hitting 5,800 points next year ? though they should brace themselves for a rocky first few months, with the index touching 4,700. Paul Mumford, a fund manager at Cavendish Asset Management, says: ?The market always turns when you least expect it and, when it does, it?s rapid. Historically, the UK market is relatively cheap on a multiple of about nine times earnings.?
It?s cheap partly because both investor and consumer confidence are so fragile ? a state of affairs not helped by the dramas surrounding struggling high-street retailers HMV, Blacks and Thorntons. But the noise around these household names can drown out more upbeat tales from corporate Britain that are just as important.
Did you know, for example, that UK car production rose 6.1 per cent over the first 11 months of 2011? Or that the world?s car makers have committed more than �4 billion of investment into the UK motor industry, underpinning next year?s prospects? Or that food and drink manufacturers are innovating at a prodigious rate, introducing 8,500 new products this year ? 500 more than in 2010 ? with exports up 12 per cent in the first nine months of 2011?
Then there?s the fact that corporate Britain is sitting on about �70 billion of cash, double the amount before the recession ? the consequence of companies rebuilding their balance sheets. Sooner or later, they will start to spend it. Concerns that the number of UK jobless is rising is tempered, too, by a revival not seen since the 1930s in self-employment. Barclays reckons nearly 480,000 new businesses were created last year.
Neither are Britain?s business leaders overly pessimistic. Willie Walsh, chief executive of British Airways-owner International Airlines Group, says: ?The outlook is not as gloomy as 2008, after Lehman Brothers collapsed. Many global economies continue to forecast growth, including the United States. In fact, I?m more optimistic about the US than many commentators.?
Sir Martin Sorrell, boss of advertising group WPP, says: ?Our budgets are showing 4 per cent like-for-like top line growth for 2012.? He adds, however, that he?s ?more worried about 2013 when the next US President ? probably Obama ? has to deal with the deficit?. He reckons over-heating China can land relatively softly, still growing at 8 per cent.
What?s more, if the Bank of England is right, UK inflation should also fall sharply from the current 4.8 per cent to nearer 3 per cent next year, reducing the squeeze on disposable incomes. And, although official forecasts show only 0.7 per cent UK GDP growth for 2012, at least it?s growth.
All that, then, before England wins the European football championships (OK, that?s unlikely) and we chalk up a �750 million boost from overseas spending during London?s Olympics ? not to mention the national thrill of a gold-medal haul.
Put like that, there are some reasons to be cheerful. Go on, smile. It is Christmas, after all.
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